Kenya winner lost, U.S. poll indicates

July 9, 2008 at 9:58 pm 12 comments

Belated tally suggests election was stolen

Source:  Chicago Tribune

NAIROBI, Kenya — Six months after a deeply flawed election triggered a wave of ethnic killings in Kenya, a U.S. government-funded exit poll indicates that the wrong candidate was declared the winner.

President Mwai Kibaki, whom official results credited with a 2-point margin of victory in the December vote, finished nearly 6 points behind in the exit poll, which was released Tuesday by researchers from the University of California, San Diego.

Opposition leader Raila Odinga scored “a clear win outside the margin of error” according to surveys of voters as they left polling places on Election Day, the poll’s author said.

The incumbent Kibaki was sworn in for a second term despite major irregularities in vote-counting, sparking tribal attacks that killed more than 1,000 people, the worst violence in this East African nation in nearly two decades.

The exit poll, whose existence was first reported in January, was financed by the Washington-based International Republican Institute, a non-partisan democracy-building organization, with a grant from the U.S. Agency for International Development, the foreign-aid arm of the State Department.

Amid a worldwide furor over the election results, the institute decided not to release the poll, citing concerns about its validity. But the poll’s authors and the former head of the institute’s program in Kenya stand by the research, which the authors presented Tuesday in Washington.

In the exit poll, Odinga had 46.07 percent of the vote to 40.17 percent for Kibaki, a difference well outside the poll’s margin of error of 1.32 percentage points. The official results gave Kibaki 46.42 percent of the vote to 44.07 percent for Odinga.

The research by James Long, a doctoral candidate in political science at UCSD, and Clark Gibson, the chairman of the university’s political science department, offers more evidence of serious fraud in Kenya’s government election commission.

According to the pollsters’ projections, Odinga, who also led Kibaki in pre-election polls, should have received about 58,000 more votes than he was credited with. Kibaki should have received about 356,000 fewer votes.


Entry filed under: 2007 General Elections in Kenya, Africa, Crime, Jesse Masai, Kenya, Literature, Media, Personals, Politics, Society, World.

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12 Comments Add your own

  • 1. JJ  |  July 10, 2008 at 12:32 am

    It is sad to see the direction our nation is taking. Theft is glorified and defended. Support is given blindly just because of tribe even if what the leaders are doing is detrimental to the country. Who will save us from self destruction?

  • 2. oren  |  July 10, 2008 at 9:23 am

    Too late now..damage is done. Anyone who dwells on this will be labelled as “hindering the maendeleo we have thus far achieved”.

    Best we can do is make sure this NEVER happens again.

  • 3. urista  |  July 11, 2008 at 10:15 pm

    You’re still on that chapter? Wacha the south african judge gives us his tally. Either way, there is no nation. Not after all that blood under the bridge, and the utterances from those who would be national leaders. We clearly did God wrong as a people, so honestly, hatuna bahati, and the closer you look at the mess, the less hope one has in a nation.

  • 4. pea  |  July 15, 2008 at 10:03 am


  • 5. Lulizi  |  July 17, 2008 at 6:41 pm

    There is nowhere to hide! In the last days as Jesus put it, what was done in darkness will be revealed and repeated on the roof tops!

    Let God be true and every man a liar!

  • 6. zak  |  August 4, 2008 at 12:24 pm

    The ‘smartest’ thieve won,Period.

  • 7. NDAWAUSA  |  August 4, 2008 at 1:56 pm

    Lets all give our MPs some work visit blog to post issues to be attended by your area MPM

  • 8. NDAWAUSA  |  August 4, 2008 at 2:01 pm

    Lets all give our MPs some work visit blog to post issues to be attended by your area MP

  • 9. pea  |  August 5, 2008 at 9:14 am

    was here. an update would be nice!!

  • 10. Gera  |  August 18, 2008 at 12:36 pm

    Kizee please move on.80% of statistics are wrong,will repeat above 60% of statistics are wrong and even a third time can boldly say over 50.1% of statistics are wrong.Indeed cooked…hahaha

  • 11. Jairus  |  September 11, 2008 at 3:05 pm

    Both sides committed irregularities in the elections. Fullstop. US was a biased party in the elections

  • 12. Godfrey  |  November 5, 2008 at 9:01 am

    Depends on where the poll was done. Support for Raila and Kibaki was pegged on ethnicity, social class and age group.


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